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中國之行

发布时间:2019-11-09 08:36:02

中国之行

上周,我们和中国的一些养猪业者在一起中国是美国/加拿大猪肉的主要出口市场,中国的产业现况对我们来说非常重要

This past week we were with Chinese pork Industry people. As China is a key export market for USA/Canada pork we believe the state of the Chinese Industry is quite important.

Some Observations

一些观察

Although Hog Prices in China are around 98 USD liveweight a lb. (13.37 RMB/kg Liveweight) the average Chinese producer is currently averaging a loss per hog of about $40 per head.

虽然中国的生猪价格约98美分/磅活重(13.37元/公斤活重),目前多数中国养殖户每头猪平均损失约40美元

The latest Chinese hog farm inventory indicates March was 434.36 million head, down from October 471.41 million head. Down 37.05 million head (Doesn t that indicate China s scale? The decrease of 37.05 million would be over half of the US Inventory.)

最新的中国养猪场存栏数据显示,存栏从去年10月的47141万头降为今年3月的43436万头减少了3705万头(这不能代表中国的规模减少的3705万超过了美国存栏的一半)

Why is China losing money with 98 USD liveweight? Corn is $8.00/bushel and the average produces is just over 17 hogs marketed/sow/year.

为什么中国在98美分的生猪价格还有亏损玉米价格是$ 8.00/蒲式耳,养殖户平均每头母猪年提供生猪数为17头左右

The inventory decrease in China is not only a result of financial losses leading to liquidation but diseases (Foot and Mouth, PRRS, PED and /or PCV2 etc.). China is a drug company s dream market. Asian flu in China magnifies the protein supply challenge. Lots of diseases cutting supply.

中国的存栏下降不仅是经济损失所导致的减栏,疾病也是其中的原因之一(口蹄疫、蓝耳病、流行性腹泻及圆环病毒等)中国是兽药公司的理想市场中国的亚洲流感放大了蛋白质供应的挑战大量疾病阻止了供应

China has increased Corn Production for ten consecutive years. The China Corn Crop should exceed 20 billion bushels in 2013. They need it too as increased meat protein demand from 1.3 plus billion people takes more and more feedstuffs.

中国已连续十年增加了玉米生产中国玉米产量在2013年应该会超过200亿蒲式耳1.3亿以上人口对动物蛋白的需求不断增加,需要越来越多的饲料他们同样需要玉米

The decrease of 27 million pigs in inventory over the last six months will certainly lead to higher China prices at some point when that happens we expect the scenario to enhance pork imports from USA/Canada. (Also 37 million less pigs eat much less corn.)

在过去半年间,生猪存栏减少了3700万这肯定会将中国的猪价推高到某个点如果这一情况发生,我们期待这一现象会增强美国/加拿大的猪肉进口(另外,减少的3700万头猪也会减少玉米的使用)

The industry people from China we visited this past week reiterated the reality of ongoing new swine barn construction as China moves production rapidly from backyard to new farms. The challenge of the industry are many, such as: training pig people to work in the new barns, stocking new barns with already diseased pigs, finding barn locations that have a chance of being bio-secure.

我们上周在中国遇到的行业人士反复提到中国正在建设的新猪舍的现实情况,同时中国正处于后院养猪向规模化养殖的快速转变过程中该行业所面临的挑战是多方面的,如:培训在新猪舍工作的人、在新猪舍管理疾病状态的猪、对猪场寻找生物安全良好的场址

Currently there are many investor situations in China where people who have no knowledge of pig production invest in swine farms. We expect like the USA years ago such investor structures will result in failure and a trail of tears for these amateur pig producers. As we all know pig production looks relatively easy on paper and MBA projections. The stark reality is execution is the key. This is a commodity and lack of productivity and cost control is a recipe for financial ruin.

目前在中国有许多投资者,这些人并没有猪场的养猪生产投资知识我们预计这会和年前的美国一样,这种投资者结构最后走向失败,我们将看见这些业余养猪人流泪我们都知道纸上养猪以及MBA项目的养猪看上去相当容易严峻的现实是,执行力才是关键这是一种商品,缺乏生产力和成本控制就会导致亏损

Summary

总结

China swine inventory has decreased, financial losses continue ($40/head). At some point China s pork price will jump significantly pulling USA/Canada pork to fill the void, enhancing USA/Canada hog prices.

中国生猪存栏有所下降,养殖户继续亏损(40美元/头)中国的猪肉价格将大幅跳升到某个点,并使用美国/加拿大猪肉来填补空白,提升美国/加拿大生猪价格

Other Observations

其他情况

The USDA Pork Cut-out was 81.53 a couple weeks ago. At the end of last week it was over 87 . A real increase and a reflection of demand relative to supply. We expect to see Pork Cut-outs to continue to improve as hog marketing s decrease over the coming weeks with hog prices following higher.

几周前,美国农业部的猪肉切块价格为81.53美分上周末,价格超过87美分出现了增长并反映了相对供应的需求增长在接下来几周生猪存栏下降带来生猪价格提升的同时,我们希望看到猪肉切块继续提价

The US hog price is currently about the same as last year. Last year lean hogs go to $1.00 lean a lb. in the summer. We expect the same in 2013.

美国生猪价格目前与去年相同去年夏天,瘦肉猪价格达到$1.00/磅瘦肉我们预计2013年是相同的情况

US National lean carcass weights of 208.70 lbs. are about 2 lbs. lower that the same week a year ago. Reflects a very current market inventory.

美国全国的瘦肉猪胴体重为208.70磅,大约比去年同一周下降2磅这反映了目前市场存量

The USDA is projecting increased pork production in 2013 compared to 2012. Year to date US pork production is actually down -1.1%. We expect US pork production will not increase year over year and we actually expect a decline. The liquidation of sows in USA/Canada that started last July is about to come home to roost.

美国农业部预计2013年猪肉产量比2012年增加年初至今,美国猪肉产量实际下降-1.1%我们预计美国猪肉产量不会同比增加,事实上我们预期的情况是下降去年7月开始在美国/加拿大出现的母猪减栏将会得到验证

Conclusion

结论

Producers have been losing money, continue to lose money. Many have lost faith that the industry will ever be good again. The reality is many are marooned in industry with no viable exit strategy.

养殖户一直在赔钱,继续赔钱很多人失去了信心,不相信行业还会回转现实的情况是,很多人都被困在行业中,没有可行的退出方法

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